State Senate to the GOP?

With President Bush's popularity down in the 20's and voters generally disgusted with the way the nation is headed -- and alarmed about the national economic picture as well as their own savings and retirement plans -- the election this fall looks to be a dismal one for the Republican Party. But there are a couple bright spots. Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican, is in a close race with Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, the Democrat, and former state Sen. Robert Pittenger is not far behind state Sen. Walter Dalton in the polls for lieutenant governor.
Now comes political consultant John Davis with a forecast sure to ruin Democrats' day: The stars, he says, are lining up for a Republican takeover in the N.C. Senate. That would be a huge political story, given that the Senate has remained in Democratic hands since the crust of the earth cooled. By contrast, the N.C. House was held by Republicans in the mid-1990s for four years and. And the GOP shared power with Democrats in 2003-04 after a Republican switched parties to negate a GOP takeover.
Davis, former head of NCFREE, a pro-business organization, is editor of the Almanac of North Carolina Politics and in the past four elections has projected the winner 97 percent of the time, he says.
For the first time in his experience here, he goes on, Democrats are on the defensive in state Senate "Battleground Districts" and the incumbents in those races are in hot water. Among other things, Davis projects that Republican Kathy Harrington will defeat veteran Sen. David Hoyle, D-Gaston, and that Senate dean R.C. Soles will lose to Republican Bettie Fennell. Davis also thinks Rep. Debbie Clary, R-Cleveland, will beat Democrat Keith Melton, Rutherford County Clerk of Court, to pick up the seat now held by Sen. Dalton. And he projects a loss by Sen. Julia Boseman, D-New Hanover, to Republican Michael Lee.
How could Republicans pick up the Senate in a year that appears to be going so wrong nationally for the GOP? Because there's an anti-incumbent mood at work. "This is one of the most intense anti-establishment years on record," Davis writes in his analysis. "Voters are so angry that one mistake by an incumbent is all they need to vote them out."
Here's a link to Davis' analysis.