Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Perdue back in lead in govs' race?

Public Policy Polling, whose updates have kept folks abreast about what one polling firm has found in North Carolina races, has an update that finds Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue back in the lead over Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Last week it had McCrory up by a small lead.
Here's the release from analyst Tom Jensen:

Bev Perdue 46
Pat McCrory 43
Michael Munger 4

After refocusing her campaign on the economy over the last week, Bev Perdue has taken back the lead for Governor.

Perdue's ad campaign of late has tied Pat McCrory to George W. Bush's economic policies while also talking about what she would do to help things out if she was elected. Where last week she had a 48-38 lead among voters most concerned about the economy that has now increased to a 56-35 advantage. Starting to talk more about the issue that 60% of the electorate names as its top concern may have been the boost Perdue needed to start turning her declining poll numbers around.

She has improved her share of the Democratic vote from 69% last week now to 75%. If she can push that further to 80% over the course of the next month that should be good enough for a win, especially if Michael Munger continues to do so well with independent voters.

There's a 16 point gender gap in this race, with Perdue leading by 11 points among women but trailing by five points with men. McCrory has a small lead with independents. Perdue's up with voters under 45, McCrory leads with older voters.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

I hard for me to believe that Bev Purdue even has a chance in this upcoming election. The woman is just not very bright, not to mention she's part of the good ol boy corruption that's plagued this state for years.
I just hope people educate themselves on what kind of person she is and not vote for her just because she's a democrat.

Anonymous said...

It's

Anonymous said...

It's so good to see the Lt. Gov, back in the lead. She's obviously the most qualified candidate for Governor. She knows North Carolina like the back of her hand, and has a way of understanding persons from every social and economic strata. I am glad she is focusing on the economy and not whether we should 'drill, baby, drill.'

Anonymous said...

Perdue has a plan to restore our economy. She is the right candidate to be our next governor.

Days of the good old boys are coming to an end. Bev Perdue is a breath of fresh air.

Anonymous said...

We need a complete overhaul down in Raleigh.I put Bev Perdue in with the likes Tony Rand, and Marc Basnight when it comes to doing what they want to do irregardless of the will of the people of North Carolina.The stench of arrogance is overwhelming! Thank God we only have a few more days of the Easley administration! Its a shame we can not vote for Richard Moore for govenor.I remember the tactics used by Perdue against him and I am going to reward her by voting for Mccrory.

Steve said...

I had a couple of Democrats ask me to pick up McCrory yard signs for them, so there is some hope.

I agree with the others here who find it hard to imagine that people would vote for Perdue. Her debate performances were so bad that her handlers have had her skip the last couple. That strategy seems to be working. If people see her in a setting other than a scripted sound bite, she'll lose votes.

There's certainly no hope of cleaning up state government with her in office. And we need someone in the governor's office who knows that this part of the state exists.

David McKnight said...

Jack, it is a most interesting phenomenon to study and chronicle the vicissitudes of political life in Raleigh and in the Triangle and Eastern N.C. regions of the state.

I've said before that I did not intend to become so involved with trying to "solve the puzzle," but at some point, people in Charlotte who really care about state government and politics in North Carolina, need to "go to school" and find out what it is really like when these interesting political campaigns for top state offices take place.

It might take a two-day seminar at one of Charlotte's great universities to put all the questions and answers on the board, but at some point, Charlotte leaders need to master this subject.

In general, it appears that candidates at all levels, including the presidential level, don't listen much anymore to "staff advice" on how their choice of languauge may be affecting voters.

Now in a gubernatorial or senatorial race, when a Charlotte-based candidate of either party runs in a primary or when for example a Charlotte-based Republican Party runs against a leading Democrat from the state government establishment (Vinroot 2004, McCrory 2008), there is a certain zone in which specific calls for reform and more open governmental processes can receive favorable notice from people closer to state government in the Raleigh area and who really do want things to work better for the people of North Carolina.

But if a Charlotte candidate becomes too pointedly critical of the general nature and workings of state government in Raleigh, a negative reaction can set in. One has to be careful about the manner in which and the degree to which a general call for reform in Raleigh is expressed in day-in and day-out campaigning.

McCrory's phrase expressing concern about "the culture of Raleigh" may be an effective use of campaign language in Charlotte and Winston-Salem, but it frankly does not ring quite so nicely in Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, where so many people have given the beter part of their lives to the work of the state's political and academic establishment.

These may seem like minor concerns as far as campaign language is concerned, but Charlotteans really do need to learn at some point just what political life is like in the eastern half of thsi state from Greensboro to the coast. Indeed, Greensboro seems to be the western terminus of North Carolina politics as some Raleigh politicos and pundits see it, whereas just 20miles farther west, Winston-Salem and Hickory may as well be in Kentucky as far as these folks are concerned.

Gov. Kerr Scott once referred to Charlotte as "the engine that drives the North Carolina economy." You can drive the vehicle of state governmental reform at a good, steady pace back and forth across the Old North State during election season, but if you go a little heavy on the pedal, folks farther down the road will start backing away from your spot in pit row.

That's only one way to describe it. Republican Mayor Pat McCrory has run a strong campaign against an incumbent two-term Democratic lieutenant governor in Bev Perdue whose general election campaign is only now coming into better focus.

But if the call to reform becomes too much of a critical statement against the traditional state government "culture" of people from all over the state working together in the state capital for the advancement of North Carolina's fundamental interests, then some of the very voters who do favor reform and progress in Raleigh will begin to rally in behalf of the overall record of state government service to the people in Raleigh.

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