Those hoping for strong words of encouragement at today's N.C. Economic Forecast in Raleigh sponsored by the N.C. Chamber and the N.C. Banker's Association may have been disappointed, but UNC Charlotte Professor of Economics John Cannaughton kept the crowd focused on the reality of the state's economy. Among his remarks:
-- "The recession's over. It's has been over for six months. Relax."
-- He's reminded of what John Kenneth Galbraith once said: "The purpose of economic forecasting is to make astrology look good."
-- The recession may be over but "for most of us it doesn't feel that way" because of the staggering numbers of unemployed.
-- "We're not going to start feeling better until we see jobs being created."
-- North Carolina has lost about 300,000 manufacturing jobs. In November 2009, North Carolina had 300 more people employed than it had in December of 2000, making the aughts North Carolina's "lost decade."
-- It's going to be a slow recovery.
-- In 2010, about 32,000- 33,000 jobs will be created. Normally, N.C. sees about 60,000 to 70,000 jobs created. In some years, it has been 80,000 or 90,000 jobs created.
-- In December of 2010, expect unemployment to be about 10 percent, perhaps 9.8 percent.
-- There may be another federal jobs program but it won't be a permanent cure.
-- We've got to be realistic about how long it takes get those lost jobs back -- five years or more, he said.
Monday, January 04, 2010
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3 comments:
You have hit the nail on the head in your revelations about NC job losses. Statistics that say recovery is here by any other measure besides job creation is merely abstract to the average person struggling to get back on his feet. We do need to grow jobs by our own means, not so much from incentives to large outside firms that hold no allegiance to our state. Small business build up is more likely to be permanent and a community friendly endeavor. We can invest in small business, grant tax credits, health care coverage credits, and training to people to work for small companies--especially in promising new green economy areas. In my campaign for the NC Senate, in Dist. 15, which covers North Raleigh and the Town of Wake Forest, I know small businesses are all over the place, and the unemployment rate and other financial stresses abound in this area. I will be working hard to find solutions to these problems from the inside out, not for quick fixes and grand promises to large corporations that call home anywhere they can get a tax break, but not North Carolina.
If this resession is over! Than whoever thinks that should tell the rest of the country that the Detriot Lions will be playing the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl this year.
The Great Recession is over. The economy is growing a bit now, so by definition it's over. However, the Great Depression II is still around the bend with rapid inflation, weak job growth, higher taxation (at all levels), and too many folks forgetting what bootstraps are...
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