Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Straight scoop on straight party votes

A few more digits for the data-starved post-election numbers addicts: Who are the most reliable straight-ticket voters in North Carolina? The Democrats, who predominate in numbers? You can certainly make that case, but there are some interesting nuances. One is that the Libertarian Party was one hell of a draw in this election.

Democrats represent about 46 percent of all registered voters, but in the election that began Oct. 16 and culminated on Election Day Nov. 4, 58.76% of the straight ticket votes cast went to the Democratic Party. (That's 1,283,486 out of a total 2.1 million straight ticket votes, according to the State Board of Elections Web site.)

While Republicans represent about 32 percent of the registered voters, 40.4 percent of straight-party votes (881,856) went for the Republican ticket.

So you can say that both Democrats and Republicans enjoyed straight-party support in excess of their proportion of registered voters.

This is not quite the same as saying that all those straight-party Democratic ballots were cast by Democrats, or that all those Republican straight-party ballots were cast by Republicans. There may have been a number of straight-ticket ballots cast by unaffiliated voters, who make up 22 percent of the state's registered voters. And of course there might have been some crossover straight tickets, too.

The interesting number to me was the number of straight-party ballots cast for the Libertarian ticket. There are only 3,683 North Carolinians registered as Libertarian, but there were 19,054 ballots cast for the Libertarian ticket. That's five times as many straight-ticket votes as there are registered voters for the Libertarian Party.

Of course, the Libertarian ticket was mighty short compared to the Democrats and Republicans, and Libertarian numbers are relatively tiny. Libertarians got less than 1 percent of the total straight ticket vote. But to draw straight party votes from a group five times the size of the party itself must be gratifying in some way.

26 comments:

uninformed change said...

58.76% of the straight ticket votes cast went to the Democratic Party.

very intresting

Anonymous said...

Odd... I don't remember there being a choice for a straight party vote for the Libertarian party.

I voted for the Libertarian candidate when there was an option (except President) but I don't recall being able to do a straight ticket vote.

Actually, it's a good thing, I don't like the "straight ticket" votes. If I don't know about the candidates in a race, I don't mark a choice.

I usually get a sample ballot and make my choices ahead of time, if I can't find information on a race, they don't get my vote. That's usually just reserved to the Judge races. I really wish there was more information on them.

bullymom72 said...

I'm sorry, but if you don't know who your voting for...DON'T VOTE! Your ticket will not be kicked out for prez if you leave the others blank.

If you want to vote for all the candidants of a particular party and you know where they stand on each issue, it shouldn't be a problem to push each button or fill in each dot! If you feel that confident in any candidate, you will do what ever is needed to cast a vote for that person.

There is absolutely NO benefit except for those riding on the coat tail of another candidate that succeeded in getting their message out! eh emm Ms. Governor! (and no she wasn't the only local democrat I voted against)

The candidates all have websites stating where they stand on issues that matter to each voter. Some may be bigger issues to you than others. I spent a few hours one weekend going over each candidate from President to County Commissioners. I printed the sample ballot and marked it up when I made my choice. It wasn't that time consuming or difficult. Lazy voters and uneducated voters really mucked things up for NC this time.

Will said...

Mr. Betts,
I just posted on Dome where RTB picked this up, but to emphasize...

Your selective methodology is the only reason this looks interesting. Trying this another way...

22% of registration is unaffiliated, and there is no "unaffiliated" straight ticket option. Thus, it's reasonable to assume, if we are trying to figure out what "their party registration would suggest" that the unaffiliated voters split like the rest of the electorate. Non-unaffiliated voters are registered 58.8% Dem and 41% Rep. 58.8% of the 22% makes a 12.9% of total boost for Dems, and the remaining 9% boost goes to Republicans.

Thus we would more or less expect by registration for Democrats to capture 46 + 12.9 = 58.9% (compared to the actual of 58.8% as you reported).

We also would more or less expect by registration for Republicans to capture 32 + 9 = 41% (compared to the actual of 40.4% as you reported).

Now let's look at Libertarians. To do this, we'll slice it yet another way.

Assuming no one switched over (after straight party Dem voting, picking Dole), 57% of Hagan's votes came from straight party voting. Given a similar assumption, 46.7% of Dole's votes came from straight party voting. By the same method, 14.3% of Chris Cole's votes came from straight party voting. By this methodology, it's clear that Libertarians relied much less on the straight party option than either of the other two parties. I would argue, however, that the difference here between Hagan and Dole (in this methodology) is due to the classic NC scenario of people voting Republican federally and Democratic at the state level (McCain-Dole/DemCouncilofState voters). I would run these numbers for the Governor's race, but most would agree that the sensation of Dems for McCrory would make them less useful. Thus, I argue that there's really no news here...just fun numbers and the good life lesson that summary statistics can be very misleading - depending on how carefully they are produced.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Jack Betts said...

Will: Thanks for your comments and analysis. Statistics are always fun, including assumptions, reasonable or otherwise.
Thanks again, and Happy Thanksgiving.
Jack

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情趣用品 欣怡 said...

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sm said...

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derfefww said...

I always heard something from my neighbor that he sometimes goes to the internet bar to play the game which will use him some hero gold,he usually can win a lot of hero online gold,then he let his friends all have some hero online money,his friends thank him very much for introducing them the hero money,they usually buy hero gold together.

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Anonymous said...

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「朵
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chen said...

Do you know rohan crone? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy rohan gold and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these rohan online crone with his friend.
I do not like to play it. Because I think that it not only costs much money but also spend much time. One day, he give me many rohan online gold and play the game with me.
I came to the bar following him and found rohan money was so cheap. After that, I also go to play game with him.

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