Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling notes that Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who had never lost an election before losting to Democrat Bev Perdue in last week's governor's race, may have a tough fight on his hands if he runs for mayor for an eighth term. He also suggests that McCrory's "best shot for higher office is probably replacing Sue Myrick in Congress" one day. Read on:
Pat McCrory had never lost an election in Charlotte- until Tuesday. While Bev Perdue's margin of victory in Mecklenburg County was pretty small, her victory in the city itself was much greater- about 10 percent.
The fact that McCrory couldn't even win the city he's Mayor of in his quest to be elected Governor has some interesting implications moving forward. One reason he's had such ease getting reelected as Mayor over and over again is that the Democrats have put forth weak opponents against him. That will not be the case if he chooses to seek another term in 2009 with popular At Large City Councilman Anthony Foxx already announced as a candidate and other strong Democrats potentially in the mix as well. He may have to fight if he wants to keep his current post.
What about another bid for Governor? McCrory won 14 out of 18 counties within the Charlotte tv market, but lost 56 of the other 82 across the state. It's unclear whether he really has that much appeal outside his home base. He didn't connect with rural voters, which meant that Bev Perdue was able to win a lot of counties where Barack Obama lost. Republicans may want to nominate someone who can fare better in every different part of the state.
Where does that leave him? I think McCrory's best shot for higher office is probably replacing Sue Myrick in Congress at some point. He did quite well in Gaston and Union Counties, and conceivably the Mecklenburg part of the 9th Congressional District as well. Democrats are not likely to be particularly competitive for that seat any time soon, meaning it could be McCrory's for the taking whenever it comes open.
This is also available on our blog:
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/pat-mccrorys-future.html
Monday, November 10, 2008
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20 comments:
He lost, as well as possibly Senator Dole, and Vilma Leake won, based on the straight party ticket vote. People were either too lazy to inform themselves about who they were voting for or just didn't care who else they were voting for as long as they voted for President. I saw and heard it at my precinct. Pick your president - pick your party. McCrory didn't even have a chance.
kh, You are 100% correct. Pat McCrory would have won by at least 10 points state-wide if it hadn't been for the Democrat straight party voting. That is also the only reason he lost his home county. Anyone with any sense can see that.
what is "losting"?
KH and anonymous must not have voted or know anything about voting in NC because the presidential race is always separate and not included in the straight party voting. In NC, you vote for president and then vote for governor or vote straight party for governor and all below-ballot races.
he would've beat Perdue by alot most years, Perdue had a better than normal Dem(anti-GOP) year plus huge black turnout working for her. Just enough to win, and it was still close.
only problem I see for McCrory is even though Perdue will be a disaster AND in 4 years people will likely be voting out Dems again he'll still have Obama on the ticket and there will still be high black turnout.
Actually kh and anonymous ARE correct. President and straight party voting were separate, but most people still straight party voted based on their presidential choice (because they didn't know any better). I saw this OVER and OVER again as well. Also, if you look at the statistical breakdown by county, they support this as well. It's sad when uninformed, ignorant voters can decide an election that truly affects our city. And if a Charlotte resident knew even the slightest about state politics, they would never have voted for Bev Perdue.
KH is right. McCrory was a victim of straight ticket voting. Senator Dole needed to go but Pat McCrory would have made a great governor. Folk in Charlotte have been used to of the Eastern part of the state having total power for so long they think it's normal. We are the largest city in the country without a dental and medical school and we get shafted with road funds. Democrats in the city did not know "where their breads were buttered." He would make a good senator also, Myrick is a joke.
There is always a first time and there are plenty of more QUALIFIED for the lousy Sue Myrick who forgot the old biddy ran on TERM LIMITS AND THEN BROKE HER PROMISE PLUS ACTING LIKE AN EMPLOYMENT AGENCY FOR HER GREEDY FAMILY!
I ususally vote for the Democrat but I've voted for Pat in recent years for Mayor and would again no matter what Democrat is put up. He seems to do a good job. I voted for all democrats in the election except for NC Governor - again voting for Pat. Why couldn't he be a good Governor? We'll see if Bev pays CLT any more attention or if it's just lip service. When there's replacement lights on 277 & 85 I'll change my mind but for now put Pat up for any office that will affect me and I'll vote for him.
Pat won all those mayoral races because he's in the pocket of every CEO and developer in Charlotte. On a bigger stage, he ws clearly out of his league.
KH, you are living in denial if you assume that people who voted straight party did so out of ignorance. After all, the president and congressional republicans pretty much begged us to vote the straight democrat ticket.
As for McCrory, he a'int nearly as popular as you think. You could have conducted a straw poll amongst city employees and I have no doubt he would have lost.
How long will the 49% of the electorate that split their ticket continue to call the 51% who voted a straight ticket "uninformed, ignorant voters"? The 51% identify more strongly with a politcal party than with particular candidates. Does this realy make them uninformed and ignorant?
Pat lost because he didnt run the best campaign in a time when distrust of Republicans is at an all-time high. I wasn't impressed by Perdue or Pat and voted for Munger because I thought he had the best policies. If anything, the mayor agreed with Munger in the debates I saw and borrowed his ideas than anything and that was the deciding factor for me. I'd rather vote for the leader, not the follower. Pat didnt distinguish himself in a way that made him a compelling choice outside of his party.
I'm a white educated man living in Charlotte who has voted for Pat McCrory for mayor before, however, I did not vote for McCrory as govenor because of state power implications and I felt Perdue was the better candidate. I did NOT vote a straight party ticket, AND I made an informed choice. It's easy to explain the results as anomalies or stupidity in the voting booth, but the fact is most people are smarter than given credit. Be comfortable with your opinions, but don't try to explain other people's actions. You don't know what you're talking about.
i think mccrory would be more effective locally and at the state level. I think replacing myrick makes sense, as a republican, she has nothing of merit, and futhermore, only wins becuase of myers park. I still think he is an effective state leader, but this was the best charlotte candidate running for governor that i have seen, and against the weakest of candidates...this was our best chance to be represented. This was the obama effect, and a very organized NCDC that really worked hard for there candidates. Pat Mccrory should have been the exception. I hope he stays involved in some level, We would love to have him at any level in cabarrus county as a leader, come up here and put scott padgett out of business, that is change i can believe in...i dont know much about anothy foxx, but the local demorcats are empowered, and would be smart to capitalize on the strong urban base that, when engaged and mobilized can put someone in office. His challenge, will be to reach out to all voters, and show that spirit that obama has begun. I encourage the republicans in this state to start reaching out, and think out of the box, and create diversity not divsion. Go to a black church, not to talk, but to listen, and understand the needs of a community better. Understand the legal immigrats needs in NC, and reach across. Most importantly, have a message of hope and true progress. we all benefit. The party is in disarray, and we have hard hard times ahead here in NC. I still think McCrory will be a player at a higher level someday nationally. keep fighting mayor pat, you have your believers. Light rail wasr really a gamble, but when gas was 4.50 everyone road from south park to 7th street. Now it is paying for itself and the next leg. Lastly, what mecklenburg county, doesn't want, cabarrus county will gladly take. Our door is open for you up here mayor pat...
It amuses me that someone would claim that they made an "informed choice" when they voted for Perdue.
Unless they somehow benefit from the Black/Bassnight/Rand kleptocracy, what kind of choice is that?
I can see why some folk would vote against McCrory. They were still mad over the arena and the train, and decided they'd cut off their nose to spite their face.
I can also see why people would choose Munger. He was certainly the most intelligent and attractive candidate of the three. But his supports had to know that their vote would just help Bev.
But indeed the Democrats did a good job of coaching Obama supporters to follow up their presidential vote with a straight ticket for the other races. And the elections people did such a good job of telling people to vote separately for President that the undervoting went way down, but I'm sure they inadvertently encouraged straight party voting when they gave their instructions to voters. The long ballots in some places helped lazy voters to decide to make just two marks.
It's possible that McCroy lost his county and state due to his poor management of Charlotte. First, we were lied to about the cost of the NASCAR museum. It is still possible that voters would have supported the higher cost, but to have low-ball numbers approved but no actual cost plans because no one really believed that it would cost so little, is insulting. Then the mismanagement of the drought. Lake levels and ground water levels have returned to pre-drought levels, yet restrictions and high water rates remain. Let's add the gasoline shortage, firehouses outside of the city, on and on. His defense: Charlotte has a weak Mayor government. What makes him think he's qualified to be governor or anything other than a member of the City Council. That's why he lost.
Ok Mayor Pat to replace Myrick.. where Do I vote and when. I want to be first in line to pull that switch. A couple of years ago at a "town hall Meeting" Sue Myrick was there answering questions. Place was full of Repbulicans that were bending over backwards to throw her Softball questions. I got tired of it and ask her didn't she Sign that Republican "Contract with America" back in the 90's. She said yes and said she was very proud of the fact. I ask her when she was going to start acting on the Term LImits portion? she did not have an answer. If anyone at there wants an Eye opener go google Republican Contract with America and see what HAS NOT BEEN DONE.
I also would be happy to vote for MCCrory over Myrick, but I don't think you can blame his loss on straight party voting solely. Betts is right - he didn't connect with the rural voters Down East. I'm from Down East, and he doesn't connect with me AT ALL. Too smooth, and so obviously in the pocket of every CEO, big law firm, lobbyist he can find. Did not run a good campaign for the east at all.However, Myrick has too many flaws and is completely not responsive to voters - witness her support for the bailout.
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