The endless debate: Jim and Jesse

Public Policy Polling's findings about how Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms are viewed these days (Hunt with an edge, but not a huge one) was a reminder of the epic 1984 battle between the two symbols of North Carolina's competing schools of political thought.

Going into that race, Hunt, the two-term governor who was seen as a rising star of the Democratic Party, held an early and seemingly commanding lead over the two-term Republican senator. But Helms -- who never lost a statewide race in his five terms in the Senate (1973-2003) -- made up ground fast and defeated Hunt in the 1984 general election, the only defeat Hunt suffered in six statewide races beginning with his successful campaign for lieutenant governor the same year Helms first won the Senate race and his four successful runs for governor. Helms, of course, died last summer; Hunt remains quite active in setting and shaping the public policy agenda in this state.

No way to prove this, but I always thought that North Carolina voters liked Hunt's optimism, energy and can-do approach to education, while they also liked Helms' penny-pinching ways when it came to the federal budget and his distrust of a powerful central government. My working theory was that in any Hunt-Helms matchup beyond 1984, voters would stand by Jesse in a Senate contest but stick with Jim in any race for governor.

Here's Tom Jensen's analysis:

Jesse Helms may have beat out Jim Hunt at the polls when they faced off for the Senate in 1984, but when it comes to who North Carolinians say they have a higher opinion of now, the former Governor is winning out 43-37.

That fact has a lot to do with the changing demography of the state. Among natives of North Carolina Helms has the better legacy, 42-41. But with folks who have moved into the state Hunt has a substantial 45-31 lead.

The numbers break down pretty much as you would expect. Liberals, moderates, women, urban and suburban voters, and African Americans all have a more favorable view of Hunt. Conservatives, whites, men, and rural voters all prefer Helms.

The results are not quite as polarized along party lines as one might expect. 16% of Democrats say they have a better opinion of Helms, an indication that even though the influence of the Jessecrats has clearly been diluted, as evidence by Barack Obama's victory in the state last fall, they're not completely gone. At the same time, 16% of Republicans say they have a more favorable view of Hunt. That is particularly true among non-native Republicans, 25% of whom say they like Hunt more.

I think this poll actually says a fair amount about where North Carolina is today politically. When we decided to ask this question I expected Hunt to win by a much larger margin, and I think the further into history we go the more favorably Hunt will be viewed in these types of comparisons. But the reality is that even though the state is turning in a more progressive direction, shifting the pendulum to Hunt after he lost to Helms at the polls, there is still a very strong conservative base of voters in the state whose influence will remain strong if not necessarily dominant moving forward.