Wednesday, September 03, 2008

N.C. to be a 'permanent swing state'?

N.C.to be a 'permananent swing state?

Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling in Raleigh, a firm that does a lot of work for Democrats, reports how some changes in North Carolina's demographics may change political outcomes in coming years.

In short, he says in a new analysis based on interviews with a couple of thousand North Carolinians before the Democratic convention, "the state could trend more Democratic, particularly at the federal level, in the coming election cycles."
Among other things, he notes:

-- "Native North Carolinians are supporting Republican candidates for the major statewide offices this year, while migrants to the state are supporting Democrats."

-- "Newer North Carolina residents support the Democratic candidate more by a margin of anywhere from 11-15 points in the races for President, Governor, and Senate."

And he also cautions: "For Barack Obama to win North Carolina this year it will probably take an exceptional turnout from black voters and young voters. Moving forward though the changing demographics of the state would seem to have the potential to make it one of those permanent swing states in Presidential elections. Older conservative Democrats who often vote Republican will continue to be replaced in the population by more liberal Democrats who consistently vote for their party’s candidates. There will likely also continue to be an influx of voters who identify with neither party but at least for this year are leaning more toward the Democratic side of the spectrum."

Here's a link to the full report: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/achangingstate.pdf

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

translation:

north carolina has the highest illegal mexican immigrant population in the entire US, and they all vote democrat (using their fake social security cards)

there- i just re-wrote that entire article in one sentence.

Danimal said...

This is great news. North Carolina is finally aligning with the rest of the nation and the world, instead of sticking to its old south ways. As part of a globalist future, we are going nowhere but up. I look forward to the momentum moving forward.

Anonymous said...

Due to the large number of transplants from the Northeast to North Carolina there is no doubting it will be a permanent swing state. Another guarantee is that North Carolinians will also be treated to an increase in their taxes; the same high taxes that the Democrats ran away from in NY, NJ, CT.

Anonymous said...

Because of illegal immigration? That's the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Illegals changing the voting patterns w/ fake social security cars...priceless. Why is it that so many people rant about things they know nothing about?

Oh, and as far as rates of illegal immigrants, you should check your data before spewing crap like that. Did you forget that border states will always be bigger targets (i.e. California, Texas, Arizona?
(http://www.statemaster.com/graph/peo_est_num_of_ill_imm-people-estimated-number-illegal-immigrants)

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