Friday, October 24, 2008

Numbers for political junkies

For serious students of political science, you can't beat the meat-and-potatoes findings of the "North Carolina Data Net" at www.southnow.org, published by the Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill.

In the institution's most recent Web site posting, observations include these dry but significance-laden statistics and observations:

*The big story in registration trends involves unaffiliated voters, who now represent more than one-fifth of the North Carolina electorate. While the actual numbers rose within the major parties, both Democratic and Republican affiliation decreased between late 2004 and October 2008 as a share of the total electorate.
Unaffiliated voters, meanwhile, now account for 22.1 percent of all registrants, up from 18.5 percent in 2004.

*This is an historic election in terms of gender and race, in the nation and in North Carolina. Among the candidates in the three major campaigns on the ballot, there are four women: Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice president; Elizabeth Dole, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate; Kay Hagan, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate; and Beverly Perdue, the Democratic candidate for governor. In the presidential election, Barack Obama, the first black candidate of a major political party, has targeted North Carolina and made the state highly competitive in his race against Republican John McCain.

*As was the case in 2000, metropolitan areas largely account for statewide election turnout. In 2004, 15 of 100 North Carolina counties accounted for 51.1 percent of votes in the presidential election. In 2000, Bush won 12 of the top 15 counties, while Gore took three. In 2004, however, Bush won just six of the top 15 counties, and Kerry won 9. The 2008 presidential election will reveal whether Democrats can continue to win in the state’s major metropolitan areas while attracting new voters in rural areas.

Here’s a link to the Web site.

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